烟草在线据《商务镜报》报道编译　　菲律宾的联合英美烟草公司（AAATC）说，如果获得马拉卡南宫支持的具有争议的“罪恶税”改革法案被签署成为法律的话，烟草的市场销量将会下降50%，与此同时，卷烟黑市则将一片繁荣。

　　联合英美烟草公司的副总裁Blake Dy说，如果众议院5727号法案被签署成为法律，则阿基诺政府应该警惕黑市统治烟草业的可能性。

　　Dy反问道：“我们为什么老是认为这项法案会对烟农有利？我们为什么不考虑提高烟税带来的最严重的影响？”他甚至激烈地抨击低估提税对卷烟造成的可能影响的怀疑者们。

　　据Dy说，体现在提案中的即将对卷烟征收的重税，将会使消费者别无选择，只能转向更便宜的走私卷烟。

　　Dy的公司制造低价品牌的卷烟。他说：“最糟糕的情况会是：合法卷烟市场将下降50%，市场销量减少的最好情况也要下降26%。此外，走私和假冒产品将代替合法卷烟的位置。”

　　他说，由于烟税提得这么高，他的公司将会关门，这在世界上无论哪个地方都未曾发生过。

　　赞成提高烟税的人称，提税的目标是要遏制菲律宾吸烟人口的增加。但Blake Dy反对说，征收太高的烟税并不意味着烟草消费会下降。他说，消费者只会去寻找更便宜的产品。

　　Dy问道：“假冒卷烟的制造商正在等待这次大提税能够让他们的机器重新运转起来。除了非法这一特点之外，没有人知道假冒、走私或非法卷烟里含有什么。我们知道这些产品的成分吗？那就是你们所说的有健康意识？”

　　菲律宾烟草每年共计生产卷烟1000亿支。他说，由于在烟税史无前例地提高708%的刺激下，卷烟黑市繁荣发展，假冒产品也会涌现，烟农们将直接受到影响。

　　Dy说，因走私和假冒而使得卷烟市场销量出现下降50%的最糟糕情况下，将有500亿支合法卷烟被排挤出市场，影响42000名烟农，他们生产4000万公斤烟叶，用于制造500亿支卷烟。

　　而在最好的情况下，市场销量下降26%，合法的卷烟产量将不足260亿支，从而给22000名烟农造成影响。

Philippines: Group says 'sin' tax to lower tobacco production by 50%

　　THE Associated Anglo American Tobacco Corp. (AAATC) said the market volume of tobacco would fall by as much as 50 percent while there will be a thriving cigarette black market if the controversial Malaca?ang-backed "sin-tax" reform bill is signed into law.

　　Blake Dy, AAATC vice president, said the Aquino administration should be wary of the potential of the black market ruling over the tobacco industry should House Bill 5727 become a law.

　　"Why do we keep on thinking that this bill will be good for the farmers? Why aren't we thinking about the worst effects of this tax hike?" asked Dy even as he slammed at skeptics who downplay the possible impact of the tax hike on cigarettes.

　　According to Dy, the high tax to be charged on cigarettes, as embodied in the proposed law, will give consumers no option but to shift to the cheaper smuggled cigarettes.

　　"The worst case would be that the legitimate cigarette market will go down by 50 percent while the best scenario on market reduction is 26 percent. Further, smuggling and counterfeits will take the place of the legal cigarettes," said Dy, whose company manufactures the low-priced brands.

　　He said his company would close shop with such an exorbitant tax hike, which has never happened anywhere in the world.

　　Proponents of the tobacco-tax hike claim that the objective is to curb the increasing number of smokers in the country. But Dy countered that imposing a very high tax does not mean that consumption would also decline. He said consumers would only look for cheaper products.

　　"Manufacturers of fake cigarettes are just waiting for this excessive-tax hike to be able to have their machines get going again. Aside from its illegality, nobody would know what that fake, smuggled or counterfeit stick contains. Are we sure about the contents of these products? Is that what you call being health conscious?" Dy asked.

　　A total of 100 billion cigarette sticks are produced by the tobacco industry annually. With a flourishing cigarette black market fueled by an unprecedented tobacco-tax hike of 708 percent, counterfeits will emerge and farmers are directly affected, he said.

　　Dy said under a 50-percent worst-case scenario brought about by smuggling and counterfeits, 50 billion sticks of legal cigarettes will be edged out of the market and would affect 42,000 farmers who produce 40 million kilos of tobacco leaf, the required kilos of leaf to manufacture 50 billion sticks.

　　At a best-case scenario of a 26-percent market drop, volume produced would be less 26 billion legal sticks and would affect 22,000 farmers.