烟草在线据印尼投资报道编译　　在印尼政府放弃提高卷烟消费税的计划之后，印尼的卷烟产量预计在2014年将增长到3550亿至3600亿支。不过，如果要实现这个目标，印尼的宏观经济环境——尤其是通货膨胀率——保持稳定也是很重要的。今年，印尼的卷烟产量预计将达到3400亿支。印尼拥有世界上最大的卷烟市场之一。

　　然而，尽管2014年卷烟消费税不上涨，明年部分地区的适用于卷烟价格的税率仍会上涨10%。印尼的烟草业显示，10%的税率上涨是适度的，将不会影响烟草业的发展。在这种情况下，2014年全年的卷烟产量和消费量都将取得增长。不过，在2015年，卷烟消费税和税率将会上涨（合计18%），将会抑制烟草业的增长。

　　外国公司仍然有兴趣投资或发展印尼烟草业有很多原因。首先，印尼人口众多，超过2.4亿人。大约三分之二的印尼男性吸烟，但该国的一个特色是，只有5%的少数女性吸烟。其次，由于原材料和其它生产资料大多可以在印尼当地找到，烟草的生产成本比较低（尽管2012年的生产成本有所上涨），而且在全球经济衰退的环境下有反弹趋势。因此，国内消费稳定增长，而卷烟出口量却在下滑。2009年，印尼的卷烟出口额达到5亿美元，但出口额一直呈下降趋势，尤其是自美国限制进口丁香烟以来。丁香烟是一种用丁香制成的卷烟，含有70%的烟草及30%的丁香粉、丁香油和其它附加剂。印尼以生产丁香烟而闻名，与白色卷烟相比，印尼约85%的吸烟者更喜欢丁香烟。

　　印尼最大的烟草公司有盐仓集团、三宝麟集团和奔都尔国际投资公司。盐仓集团和三宝麟集团是印尼市值最大的两家公司。

Indonesian Tobacco Industry Expected to Continue its Growth in 2014

　　After the Indonesian government abandoned the idea to increase excises on cigarettes, the production of cigarettes in Indonesia is expected to increase to between 355 and 360 billion cigarettes in 2014. However, in order to meet that target, it is also important that the country's macroeconomy - particularly the inflation rate - remains stable. This year, Indonesian cigarette production is expected to reach 340 billion cigarettes. Indonesia has one of the world's largest markets for cigarettes.

　　However, despite the absence of an increase in excises in 2014, there will still be a 10 percent (regional) tax increase applied to prices of cigarettes next year. According to Indonesia's tobacco industry, this 10 percent increase is moderate and will not hurt expansion of the industry. As such, the production and consumption of cigarettes will be able to grow throughout 2014. In 2015, however, there may be an increase in excises and tax (amounting to 18 percent in total), which can curb the industry's growth.

　　There are a number of reasons why foreign companies remain interested to invest or expand in Indonesia's tobacco industry. Firstly, Indonesia has a vast population numbering over 240 million people. About two-third of all Indonesian men smoke cigarettes, while a characteristic of the country is that - with 5 percent only - few females smoke. Secondly, as raw materials and other production means are mostly sourced domestically, tobacco has low production costs (although these have grown in 2012) and has been resilient to the global economic downturn. Therefore, domestic consumption grew steadily, while the export of cigarettes has been in decline. In 2009, exports of Indonesian cigarettes were valued at USD $500 million, but this figure has been on a declining trend, particularly since the USA limited the import of kretek cigarettes. Kretek are cloth cigarettes that consist of tobacco (70 percent) and ground cloves, clove oil and other additives (30 percent). Indonesia is famous for its kretek production and about 85 percent of all smokers in Indonesia prefer kretek cigarettes to white cigarettes.

　　The largest tobacco companies in Indonesia are Gudang Garam, HM Sampoerna and Bentoel Internasional Investama. Gudang Garam and HM Sampoerna are among the Indonesian companies with the largest market capitalization in Indonesia. Enditem