烟草在线据便利店新闻报道编译　　同历史同期的第三季度相比，对烟草零售商的最近一项调查发现，近70%的受访者表示与第二季度相比，第三季度的竞争更具竞争力。

　　富国证券有限责任公司的烟草零售调查，列举了竞争力不断增加的若干因素：更高的天然气价格、转向毒品的渠道和一元店、生产定价计划，以及新产品推出。

　　据富国银行证券董事负责饮料、烟草和消费者研究的总经理邦尼·赫尔佐格称，总而言之，第三季度报告的销量增长可能高于历史趋势。她指出，在推出几个新产品之前，库存增加了，其他库存波动的情况包括：在6月中旬价格上涨后库存的下降，以及2011年第三季度行业发货量下降6.5%，使2012年第三季度的对比情况很轻松。“我们预计报告后的行业销量下降2%（好于3.5%左右的历史下降幅度），”她说。

　　尽管竞争的环境越来越激烈，但是富国银行证券的大多数分析师预期卷烟价格在12月小幅上升。赫尔佐格说，菲莫美国公司有望领导价格变动，估计每包价格将提高7美分。

　　至于具体的品牌，赫尔佐格说，万宝路可能定位于未来份额的增长。她补充道，此外，新港薄荷烟的销量在增加，但是略高促销费用的增速在放缓，骆驼的销量趋势使促销放缓。

　　在电子卷烟方面，富国银行证券发现，更多的零售商接受电子烟，并给它们分配更多的空间。赫尔佐格指出，这个消息并不令人惊讶，因为零售商在电子烟上获得的毛利率比传统卷烟的利润率高出25%。“在接下来的10年里，我们继续预计电子卷烟的消费将超过传统卷烟，”她补充道。

　　此外，由于灰熊品牌带动大规模的增长，无烟类别仍面临强劲的增长趋势。赫尔佐格补充道，尽管从9月开始，哥本哈根和干杯的购买量下降，但是促销已略微加速。

US: Cigarette Competitiveness Ticked Up in Q3, Retailers Say

　　With the third quarter now in the history books, a recent survey of tobacco retailers found that almost 70 percent of respondents stated the competitive environment was more competitive during the quarter compared to the second quarter.

　　Wells Fargo Securities LLC's tobacco retail survey cited several factors for the increased competitiveness: higher gas prices, channel shift to drug and dollar stores, manufacturing pricing programs, and new product introductions.

　　And when all is said and done, third quarter reported cigarette volume growth will likely be above historical trends, according to Bonnie Herzog, managing director of beverage, tobacco and consumer research at Wells Fargo Securities. She pointed to inventory build ahead of several new product introductions; and other inventory fluctuations including de-loading post the mid-June price increases and third quarter 2011's industry shipment volume decline of 6.5 percent which provides the third quarter 2012 with an easy comp. "We expect reported industry volume to be down -2 percent (better than historical declines of about 3.5 percent)," she said.

　　Despite the increased competitive environment, the majority of Wells Fargo Securities' contacts expect cigarette prices to tick up in December. Philip Morris USA is expected to lead the price moves, with estimates putting the increase at 7 cents per pack, Herzog said.

　　As for specific brands, Herzog said that Marlboro is likely positioned for future share gains. In addition, Newport Menthol volume is up, but decelerating on slightly higher promos; and Camel volume trends are lukewarm on heightened promos, she added.

　　On the electronic cigarette front, Wells Fargo Securities found that more retailers are accepting e-cigarettes and allocating more space. The news is not surprising, Herzog notes, since retailer gross margins on the e-cigarettes are 25 percent higher than traditional cigarette margins. "We continue to expect consumption of e-cigs will surpass traditional cigs in the next decade," she added.

　　Furthermore, the smokeless category is still experiencing robust growth trends with Grizzly driving the bulk of growth. Promos have accelerated slightly, although reduced buydown rates on Copenhagen and Skoal started in September, Herzog added. Enditem